EURUSD saw a bearish impulse on Friday the 24th. But the price is still within the 4th wave corrective structure of the Primary degree. Degrees above Grand Super-cycle are beyond the scope of this analysis. Hence not marked on the chart.
Wave counts for each degree from Monthly chart to 15 Min. chart
EURUSD Monthly Elliott wave count
It is assumed that the abc correction as well as the overall correction of the Grand Supercycle is complete at the highest high – 1.60380. Therefore the long term expectation is wave 1 of the Grand Supercycle. So there is plenty of bearish expectation on EUR according to this forecast.
Long term perspective is not so useful in day to day trading. Although it helps to do a complete wave count so that lower degree counts will be within the context of higher degrees.
Longer term expectation of waves:
Grand Super Cycle – 1 of 12345 impulse (currently underway)
Super Cycle – 3 of 12345 impulse (currently underway)
Cycle – 3 of 12345 impulse (currently underway)
Primary – 5 of 12345 impulse (Awaiting confirmation of the end of wave 4)
EURUSD Daily Elliott wave count
4th wave of correction of the Primary degree has characteristics of a triangle. Since the count of an ABC or Flat correction is not correct as both the A and C are not impulsive waves and do not have 5 wave impulse structures within the lower degrees. The other possibility however is the WXY completion at the C point. Personality of the presumed wave D of the triangle will provide some clues as to which count is correct.
Be it wave 1 after WXY completion or wave D of triangle, the expectation is again bearish. If price violates the bottom of the overall corrective structure, then the WXY count will be correct. But until price reaches or breaches the structure-bottom, the expectation will be for a contracting triangle.
Medium term expectation of waves:
Intermediate – D of ABCDE triangle (Currently underway)
EURUSD 4 Hour Elliott wave count
It seems that the b wave of abc within D wave of triangle is complete and the c wave is underway.
Short/Medium term expectation of waves:
Minor – C of ABC ZigZag (Currently underway)
EURUSD 15 min Elliott wave count
Zooming in further down to the 15 min chart it clearly seems the market either completed or within wave 2 of the Minute degree. A and C waves of abc correction are impulse waves.
So the short term expectation is for the completion of wave 2 and commencement of wave 3 within the Minute degree. Structurally wave 2 does not seem to be complete. There may be a small rally to violate the top of the structure before a sharp decline. Nevertheless, short term outlook is bearish as well.
Short term expectation of waves:
Minute – wave 2 completion and commencement of wave 3 of the 12345 impulse.