The ongoing USDCAD corrective structure warrants some attention, as it may be reaching the end of it’s course. Although the Cycle degree could extend for another phase making it a triple-three, it seems highly unlikely, considering the elapsed time of the correction so far. However, there may be another final component in the making in order to complete the triple-three in the Primary degree (WXYXZ,) also completing the double-three of the Cycle degree (WXY.)
My expectation for the final component is a ABC Flat correction. But it could be any corrective structure.
Note: Cycle degree is the highest degree labeled in blue and the Primary is one degree below the Cycle labeled with circled letters in green. Obviously, Cycle degree (blue) should complete a double-three (WXY) when the Y wave in itself completes a triple-three (WXYXZ) at the Primary degree (green.)
Other probable scenarios
In terms of lebeling there are two main questions that needs addressing on the chart.
1. Why expect a triple-three instead of concluding the correction with a double-three in the primary degree?
It’s a valid point. But if the Cycle wave-Y is already completed with the Primary wave-Y, the following bearish wave (supposedly Primary wave-X) should have been an impulse. Furthermore, presumed wave-X barely reaches the 61.8% fib retracement of the preceding impulsive wave-C (Intermediate degree labeled in brackets and orange in color) also consuming more time to complete than the whole of wave-C. This is more confirmation that the bearish wave-X in question is actually not an impulse.
2. Could the wave-Y of the Cycle degree be an ending diagonal instead of a complex correction?
Yes. But ending diagonal patterns are of 5-3-5-3-5 wave structure. There is no possible count of a completed ending diagonal. However, if this is the case, there will be more bullish sentiment before the big decline. Furthermore, the Cycle wave would be relabeled as an ABC correction instead of WXY.
Forecasting an ending diagonal while in its 2nd or 3rd wave stage is not good practice. Given the unpredictability of the markets, there are infinite number of possibilities that could take place. However, within the confinement of Elliott wave principle, one could assume the ending diagonal to be the next most probable scenario.
Previous forecasts of USDCAD
- Long term outlook of majors (weekly charts including USDCAD)
- USDCAD Elliott wave analysis – July 2016
If you have followed the previous USDCAD wave analysis’ and forecasts, then you know the longer-term anticipation is for the next big decline. But before all that, we have to see through the ongoing correction.
The big decline of USDCAD is coming. But the question is when? Sufficient to say, soon referring to the wave analysis. The wave count of the current corrective structure will provide further clues when it gets more and more closer to the end. Once there is confirmation of the big bearish impulse, there will be no need to pick the very top. Because the potential target is way below. I personally will target the wave 3 for the bigger trade. However, there will be plenty of short term opportunities as well.
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