USDCAD after a steep bullish motive wave that ended right at the beginning of this year is actually the C wave of Grand supercycle degree. The reason is a very clear 3 wave structure. Although beyond the scope of trading, B wave of an even higher degree (Sub millennium degree) ended at the same price point as well.
USDCAD wave structure – Monthly chart
USDCAD wave structure – Weekly chart
Breaking down the C wave into sub degree waves the count is clear and there are no straightforward complications in naming them.
USDCAD wave structure – Daily chart
Obviously, hindsight analysis is much more simpler than forecasting. But the money is in forecasting and expecting the next motive at the right time.
USDCAD wave structure – 4 Hour chart
There is a Caveat in this 4 hour chart. Sub-division of the Supercycle-B wave is annotated as a WXY instead of an ABC. The reason is obvious. ‘A’ waves are motive 5 wave structures, but there is a clear 3 wave ZigZag structure in the W wave. Although its too early to decide the overall corrective structure, its safe to assume it as WXY at this point.
USDCAD wave structure – Hourly chart
Expecting another ZigZag as the Y wave, we assume that A and B are complete at this stage. So the market is currently in the C wave of the Primary degree.
USDCAD wave structure – 15 min chart
Sub-dividing the currently ongoing C wave, it seems that there is room for more bullish movement before the completion of C.
So short term expectation is bullish, while medium-long term expectation is bearish. If the market moves against our expectation we will reconsider the count. But until that this is our prefferred Elliott wave count for USDCAD.